Getty Tim Hardaway Jr. and Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks celebrate after a play.
The Miami Heat promise to be one of the most intriguing teams to watch this offseason.
The Heat made it all the way to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed, something that has only been done once before, but the offseason always brings change, and rumors are already swirling that Miami may be ready to take some big swings in the coming months.
NBA insider Brian Windhorst of ESPN reported on June 13 that Miami will be in the market for a superstar to pair with Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler, and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald echoed that sentiment. “The most realistic avenue for the Heat to improve its team is trading for a player who’s already under contract for next season,” Jackson wrote, also noting the Heat are expected “to pounce if a star becomes available.”
If no big deals can be worked out or no superstars become available, though, Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report pitched a possible three-team trade that would send 3-point specialist Duncan Robinson packing and would bring Tim Hardaway Jr. of the Dallas Mavericks to South Beach.
Will Heat Keep Duncan Robinson Around?
Miami will certainly have some decisions to make about the contracts of a few returning players. Kyle Lowry is set to make around $29 million next season on an expiring deal, which is a lot of money to pay an aging backup point guard.
Robinson also has another problematic contract. Robinson has an $18 million salary for the 2023-24 season, although his value may have been boosted by his solid performance in the postseason. Robinson averaged 9.3 points and 2.1 rebounds a game in the playoffs, also hitting 44.2% of his shots from beyond the arc in 18.2 minutes per contest.
Those were better numbers than he put up during the regular season, when he scored 6.4 points a game and shot a career-worst 32.8% from downtown. Considering Robinson’s recent struggles, Buckley seems to think Hardaway would be a better option for Miami — although Buckley notes Hardaway’s four-year, $75 million contract is a bit of an overpay for his services.
“The Heat could have major interest in a player like Tim Hardaway Jr., who is overpaid for being a shooting specialist,” Buckley wrote. “Unlike Duncan Robinson, though, the 31-year-old at least still provides the shooting. He can be a bit streaky, but when he is on, he’ll have unguardable stretches.”
Would Hardaway Be Better for the Heat Than Robinson?
Buckley also notes that a third team would likely have to be involved in the swap. “As Dallas gets into desperation mode to fix its roster around Luka Dončić, it would almost certainly have interest in unloading Hardaway’s deal. The Heat have to find a way to add him while subtracting Robinson, likely in a three-team trade that gives the Mavericks win-now help and a third team a long-term asset or two.”
Hardaway, 31, played small forward last year after primarily being a shooting guard over his career, so he’s versatile enough to move around a bit. Last season, Hardaway played in 71 games (45 starts) and averaged 14.4 points and 3.5 rebounds a game and he shot 38.5% from distance. It was his ninth straight season scoring 14 or more points
Is Hardaway better for Miami than Robinson? There’s little doubt he might score more, but it wouldn’t warrant shipping Robinson off. Hardaway is two years older, and it can be argued Robinson is the better shooter from distance.
In the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, Robinson shot over 40% from 3-point range. Hardaway has never done that once in his 10-year career. Robinson had a down year for Miami, but he showed up when the team needed him most in the playoffs. The Heat might include him in a trade for one of those stars mentioned earlier, but swapping him for Hardaway feels like a lateral move at best.
