Getty Duncan Robinson has been clutch for the Miami Heat so far this postseason.
Duncan Robinson helped propel the Miami Heat to victory over the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, scoring all 10 of his points in the fourth quarter.
Robinson, 29, signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Heat in August of 2021. It was the highest sum ever paid to an undrafted free agent at the time, but it’s a contract that has been widely regarded as a huge overpay.
One Eastern Conference executive told Heavy Sports insider Sean Deveney in December of 2022 that Robinson’s contract was the worst in the NBA, but after the Heat forward’s recent play in the postseason, one league scout believes the perception surrounding his deal is changing — and that makes Robinson much more tradable.
NBA Scout: Robinson’s Contract ‘More Movable Now’
After averaging just 6.4 points and 1.6 rebounds in 16.4 minutes a game during the regular season (stats via ESPN), Robinson has stepped it up in the playoffs. He averaged 9.8 points and 2.8 rebounds in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks (20.2 minutes per game), shooting an incredible 73.7% from beyond the arc in that series.
He slipped a bit in Round 2 against the Knicks, netting 6.5 points and 1.0 boards a game while shooting just 27.1% from downtown (15.7 minutes a game). It was his performance in the conference finals against the Boston Celtics that really stood out, though. Robinson scored 11.4 points and hauled in 2.6 assists a game in the seven-game series, hitting 55.6% of his shots from 3-point land, averaging over 18 minutes a game.
The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson spoke to an Eastern Conference scout, and the perception about Robinson could be changing around the league, particularly after his recent clutch play. “The contract is more movable now than it seemed before the playoffs,” the scout told Jackson. “Before, it was a complete albatross contract. Now people are maybe going to take a second look and say this guy is much more viable and producing when it counts.”
Whether the Heat keep Robinson around or try to trade him remains to be seen — but the latter option is still very much on the table.
“He’s more closely living up somewhat to his contract, which I’m sure is a great relief to the powers that be there,” the scout added, in reference to Robinson. “He’s showing he has got more to his game than the three-point shooting, showing more stuff without the ball, has gotten to the basket a few times. He’s really good at moving without the ball. At least he gives effort defensively. Maybe they should have played him more this season.”
Robinson’s Playmaking Has Continued Into NBA Finals
In 2020-21, Robinson averaged 13.1 points and 3.5 rebounds a game while shooting 43.9% from the field and 40.8% from 3-point range. The following season, his numbers fell even more, as he scored 10.9 points a game and shot 39.9% from downtown.
With his stats slipping, he was relegated to the bench last season.
He has re-emerged in the playoffs, though, and his role in helping Miami beat Denver in Game 2 will be remembered in a big way if the Heat wind up winning the series. Robinson scored just three points in Game 1, but with Miami down by eight as the fourth quarter of Game 2 began, his 10 points made all the difference in Miami’s 111-108 win.
Robinson’s performance so far in the postseason could also garner the interest of other teams who may be willing to take on the $17, $18 and $19 million he’s expected to make in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Still, interested teams may want another player — Tyler Herro comes to mind — according to Jackson’s report.
“The scout said to dump Robinson’s contract alone, the Heat likely still would need to attach a carrot, which Miami has been reluctant to do,” Jackson wrote on June 3. “But he also could be part of a larger trade — in other words, salary cap ballast — as part of a larger trade.”
If Robinson’s standout play continues against the Nuggets, Miami may want to keep him around. But if another team makes an intriguing offer, a trade is still an option.
